One group of Aussies turning on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese despite his changes to the Stage Three tax cuts being a hit
A significant portion of the Australian electorate that was key to Labor’s victory in the 2022 federal election has turned away from the Albanian government.
While voters generally approve of the Prime Minister’s broken promise on the Phase Three tax cuts, the government has fallen behind the coalition with women voters.
In the past six months, Labour’s primary female vote has fallen dramatically from 35 per cent to 30 per cent while the Coalition’s has increased from 36 to 41 per cent.
On a Labor versus Opposition basis, the Coalition now leads women voters by 51 per cent to 49 per cent, according to a new poll for the Daily Telegraph.
Just two months ago, the RedBridge poll had Labor leading the Coalition by 54 per cent to 46 per cent on the same measure.
A significant portion of the Australian electorate that was key to Labor’s victory in the 2022 federal election has turned away from the Albanian government. Anthony Albanese is pictured with his partner Jodie Haydon
While voters generally approve of the prime minister’s broken promise on the phase three tax cuts, the government has fallen behind the coalition with women voters.
Worryingly for Labour, almost half of all voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and less than a third think the country is heading in the right direction.
But the Prime Minister will take solace that his risky move to change the coming tax cuts to benefit everyone, rather than just high-income earners, has paid off.
Income between $18,200 and $45,000 will be taxed at 16 percent, down from 19 percent. The 30 per cent tax rate will apply to incomes between $45,000 and $135,000, and then a 37 per cent rate – abolished by the original stage 3 – will apply between $135,000 and $190,000. Above that, the 45 percent rate will apply.
The move helped keep Labour’s primary vote steady at 33 per cent, but the coalition has increased its position by 3 points to 38 per cent since December.
That boost to primary votes increased the Opposition’s two-party preference vote from 47.2 per cent to 48.8 per cent, while the Government’s fell from 52.8 per cent to 51.2 per cent.
On those numbers, the coalition – whose voter boost is almost entirely from women – will be competitive in the next election, which is expected to be held in May 2025.
However, the tax cuts that start on July 1 will have been in people’s bank accounts for 10 months by then.
That extra money is likely to be felt best in the outer suburban seats of Sydney and Melbourne that the Liberal Party needs to win back to regain power.
In the past six months, Labour’s primary female vote has fallen dramatically from 35 per cent to 30 per cent while the Coalition’s has increased from 36 to 41 per cent. A woman is pictured walking into a supermarket
In an attempt to counter the positive response Labor has received from changes in tax cuts, the opposition has warned Labor plans to change negative gearing on rental properties.
But voters are split on the issue, with 39 percent saying it should be left alone and the same number saying it should either be phased out or scrapped immediately.
RedBridge’s Kosmos Samaras said that with 60 per cent of voters supporting or strongly supporting Labour’s tax changes, the broken promise had worked.
“More importantly, it worked well in the outer suburbs and provincial cities that will shape the next federal election result,” he said.
“This is an ominous sign for the coalition as Labor has regained some of the narrative and political ground in critical voters.”
The Phase Three tax cuts have also boosted the government’s credentials on which side of politics can better manage the economy – with Labor now leading 32 per cent to 28 on the measure.
RedBridge’s Tony Barry said the Coalition would be concerned that Labor now leads on economic management, a factor in which the Conservatives generally have an advantage.
He said Mr Albanese’s decision to take a risk on tax had paid off.
“At the moment, it appears that Albanese’s decision to take a risk on trust is being rewarded by demonstrating to lower and middle income earners that he is listening to their concerns and making them an offer.”